The West has had an illusion that trade relations with the People´s Republic of China in itself is a lever to push gently the country towards political reform. The trade not only provides a window for a dialogue and pressure, but it almost automatically mean that an open economy must be accompanied by more political openness, writes NRC Perspective magazine in its latest edition.

– Experience so far suggests that it has not worked out that way,” said Koen Wellens in the article. He is a senior researcher at the the People´s Republic of China Programme at the Centre for Human Rights, University of Oslo.

– I’ve always been a bit skeptical of such a crystal clear connection. There is nothing automatic in perception that trade will change the system. Autocracy and economic growth can co-exist well,” he continues.

Will autocracy fall?
Now, however, a growing number of analysts believe that the People´s Republic of China has reached a crossroads which could lead to political reforms.

Since the People´s Republic of China started its economic openness policy in 1978, the country has experienced a growth unparalleled in history. The ambition to grow further could force Chinese leaders to grant its citizens greater political freedom.

One of those who believe that political reform will force their way is Sharon Hom. She heads the Hong Kong and New York-based organization Human Rights in the People´s Republic of China.

– Without a functioning and independent judiciary that protects the rights, independent media and civil society that can address the massive social problems the People´s Republic of China now faces, the economic growth will not be sustainable,” said Sharon Hom to Perspective.

She points to the price the man in the street have had to pay for its fabulous economic progress: persistent corruption, massive environmental problems caused by the rapid industrialization, forced evictions and expropriation of land in the wake of the government’s development projects, lack of worker rights and the inhumane conditions in many production companies that poured “Made in China” to the world market.

– This represents the lack of sustainability of China’s growth and current policies,” says Hom.

She puts the finger at China’s big challenge: that internal social unrest is one of the biggest threats to China’s further economic growth today.

Social unrest
The economic progress has created a solid, knowledgeable, technologically advanced and prosperous middle class. But it is in cities. In rural areas, where half the population lives, people are almost just as poor as before. And the differences have increased dramatically. Now it is simmering. People are tired of abuses of power and corruption of mining accidents and food scandals.

– If there is a real pressure for change of the system, I think it will come from rural areas, from farmers and workers. Not from the middle class who have benefited from the increased purchasing power,” says Koen Wellens.

Chinese leaders frequently use the term social “harmony” of what is needed to achieve economic growth. But “the Chinese way” until now has created a “harmony” through a strong, autocratic government. Not democracy.

The question many are asking about the “harmony” is whether it can be sustained without political reforms. It is difficult to overcome corruption when the party alone is both policy, government, military and judiciary – and some kind of power balance. It means that several power centers work correcting each other, maintain “harmony” in society, and economic growth.

Do it yourself
– Even at the highest level there is now recognition of the need for political reforms to protect the ongoing processes. Probably an internal debate is on the way,” adds Sharon Hom.

– In October, the 23 retired top politicians called for more transparency and a more transparent society. Their message is that the People´s Republic of China will benefit from a more open press and better access to information,” said Koen Wellens, and points out that Chinese authorities have ear to the ground and listen to the people’s unrest.

the People´s Republic of China‘s economic development
• In 1978, Deng Xiaoping introduced the “Open Door Policy”, invited the world to trade with the People´s Republic of China again and allowed private entrepreneurship.
• the People´s Republic of China is now one of the world’s main economic locomotives.
• the People´s Republic of China has had a growth of over 11 percent annually since 2005, according to the OECD, minus a small decline in 2008 and 2009.
• In 2010 the People´s Republic of China passed Japan as the world’s second largest economy. Only the U.S. is now larger.
• the People´s Republic of China is, according to the OECD world’s largest exporter of goods and has the world’s second largest manufacturing sector.

HRH Bergen, based on Amnesty International Norway information.

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