The impact of the HIV pandemic on electoral processes was illustrated in a report issued last week by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (Idasa). The figures speak volumes. Between 1999 and 2003 almost 1.5 million of about 20 million registered voters in South Africa were removed from the voters´ roll because they had died; most, it appears, from AIDS-related diseases. (29-NOV-04)

This article was written by Moyiga Nduru and released by Inter Press Service last Friday. It has been re-edited for publication here. 

Entitled “HIV/AIDS and Democratic Governance in South Africa,” the 241-page document says there is evidence of a sharp increase in mortality among registered voters between the ages of 20 and 49. In some cases, this increase is in the order of 200 percent. “The evidence in this report should alert planners and policy makers in South Africa to prevent similar scenarios,” Kondwani Chirambo, manager of Idasa´s Governance and AIDS programme, said at the launch of the report last Thursday. His colleague, Paul Graham, Idasa´s executive director, added: “This report is an attempt to understand how HIV and AIDS can impact on electoral democracy.”

Death by HIV / Aids disrupting democratic processes
According to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), HIV prevalence in South Africa amongst 15 to 49-year-olds “rose from less than one percent to about 20 percent” over the past decade. The pandemic is not only killing voters but also members of parliament (MPs) in the 13-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which South Africa is a member. In Zambia for example, 46 by-elections were held in the 20-year period between independence in 1964 and the year in which the first AIDS cases were reported (1984). Khabele Matlosa of the Johannesburg-based Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA), who contributed to the report, said of these 14 were prompted by the death of incumbents. Thirty-two had resulted from resignations and expulsion.

Three times more by-elections needed
However between 1985 and 2003, 102 by-elections took place. Thirty-nine of these were as a result of death, almost three times as many as in the previous and longer period. The causes of the various deaths were not recorded, but 27 of the 39 people concerned were in the age bracket most affected by AIDS-related deaths. The loss to constituencies was not simply one of political skill. Idasa quoted the Zambian Electoral Commission as saying that each by-election costs the country more than 200,000 dollars; because by-elections are not budgeted for, resources have to be taken from other activities – which are thus compromised.

In between election elections at huge extra expense
In his native Lesotho, Matlosa noted, eight legislators had died since 2002 prompting by-elections. Of the eight MPs, three had lost their lives in road accidents and five through illness. Each by-election is said to cost around 167,000 dollars. Neighbouring South Africa held 79 by-elections in 2001; in 2003 this number increased to 83. The largest number of polls (21) took place in the KwaZulu-Natal province, followed by the Northern Cape (9), Western Cape (9), Gauteng (8) and Free State (8). By May this year 60 by-elections had already been held in South Africa. Chirambo said the report did not conclude that every by-election was the result of AIDS, but that looking at general health trends it was fair to infer that the epidemic had played a role.

Loss of experience and institutional memory as well
“The more important point is that by-elections that happen for whatever reason,  including illness and death, translate into political and financial cost to South Africa´s young democracy,” he noted, adding: “The cost of losing MPs may be less in financial terms but it could be high in terms of losing experience and institutional memory.” Researchers also interviewed people living with HIV/AIDS. One of them, a woman who gave comment during South Africa´s April 2004 general elections, said: “I think (the politicians) talk about HIV and they lie about it. They are just trying to get people´s votes and they have been talking about it for years now but they have done nothing about it.”

Mortality rates up by up to 200 %
The woman came from the village of Nangoma in KwaZulu-Natal; this province has become the epicentre of the pandemic in South Africa, with an estimated HIV prevalence rate of 37.5 percent. With data from the voters´ roll, Idasa said it had established that mortality amongst registered women voters aged 30 to 39 years in Nangoma had increased by 179 percent between 1999 and 2003. This was higher than the national average (129 percent) but lower than some other municipalities. “While we do not know the cause of death in any individual case, the overall mortality profiles we have generated are, arguably, a veritable ´smoking gun´ for AIDS-related mortality in South Africa,” researcher Per Strand said Thursday at the Pretoria launch.

Need to consider consequences of HIV/Aids in electoral reforms 
The release of the Idasa report coincides with a busy election schedule in Southern Africa. This year alone, elections have been held in South Africa, Malawi, Namibia and Botswana. Next week voters in Mozambique will go to the polls to cast ballots for their legislators and president, while in 2005, the electoral focus will be on Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mauritius and the Democratic Republic of Congo. “Most of SADC countries are going through electoral reforms. We hope that they will take the issue of HIV/AIDS on board,” Matlosa said. While Southern Africa only has two percent of the world´s population, the region has the unenviable distinction of being home to 30 percent of all persons infected with HIV, this according to a recent report by UNAIDS.