The record poor turnout characterising the recent Zanu PF primary elections countrywide could be a barometer of what the ruling party can expect in the March parliamentary elections. The elections, which were riddled with allegations of vote buying, intimidation and inter-party violence, witnessed what could be the lowest turnout in an election of such magnitude since independence. (24-JAN-05)

This article was written by Rutendo Mawere and Savious Kwinika for the Zimbabwean daily the Standard 23 January. It has been edited for republication here.

However voting during general elections tends to draw more people to the polling stations than during party primaries, which in the case of Zanu PF, appear to reflect the jockeying among aspiring party candidates. National elections have more resources allocated to them and supporters tend to close ranks in support of whoever is representing their party. It is partly for this reason that the number of people who voted in the Zanu PF primaries are far less than those that cast their ballots for the ruling party during the 2000 parliamentary elections, in which President Robert Mugabe’s party nearly lost to opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), headed by Morgan Tsvangirai.

Turnout down by between 75 and 85 % in Zanu PF strongholds
Analysts believe the dismal voter turnout mirrored the actual political support Zanu PF commands in the country. A comparative analysis of voting patterns in the 2000 parliamentary poll and the recent Zanu PF primary elections indicates a dwindling support base for the ruling party even in its stronghold, the rural areas. Guruve North constituency in Mashonaland Central province recorded lowest voter turnout with 5 144 people voting compared to 20513 who voted for the ruling party in 2000. In Rushinga, one of the remotest areas in the country, 2 282 people voted in 2005 against 20027, who voted in 2000. Only 3 130 voters voted in Mazowe West compared to 14024 during the last parliamentary elections.

Low, but not quite as low, turnout also in MDC dominated areas
In urban areas, the stronghold of the MDC, the number of people who voted was pathetically low. In Harare’s Dzivarasekwa constituency 2 666 Zanu PF supporters voted, compared to the 6 084 in 2000, while Kambuzuma recorded only 1079 compared to 2 572 in the last parliamentary elections.

Voter apathy caused by lack of choice
Zanu PF supporters in Matabeleland region will probably be more aggrieved because they were denied the right to pick candidates of their choice and this could partly account for the voter apathy during the primaries in addition to the general unpopularity of the ruling party in that part of the country. In 2000, Zanu PF recorded 2864 votes against a mere figure of 311 in Bulawayo East constituency, while in Makokoba 393 voted this year against 2196 in 2000 general elections. In 2000, 5 236 people voted in Mpopoma/Pelandaba against 777 this year.

-No reason to interpret this as a negatve sign, says Zany PF spokesman
In the recent Zanu PF primary elections, Chipinge South recorded 12 299 compared to 4 086 in 2000 and Kadoma East, which had 14 288 to 11678 in 2000. Nathan Shamuyarira, Zanu PF’s secretary for Information and Publicity, however, denied the voter apathy in the recent ruling party primary elections would have a bearing on the March parliamentary polls. “Voter turnout for primary elections has always been low even in other countries and this has no implication whatsoever on the coming March elections,” he stressed.