-At best, what we will get is a political leadership with a weak support base and an equally limited space in which to act. At worst, we will get an armed rebellion. This is the prediciton of Charles Onyango-Obbo, right, former editor of the Monitor, who was recently HRH´s guest to Norway and spoke at the seminar ´Aid and the troubled democracies of east Africa´ last month. (09-FEB-06)

This article is based on an interview Onyango-Obbo did with Ellen Hofsvang, a journalist with Bistandsaktuelt, the magazine of Norad, the Norwegian State Agency for Development. The interview was first published by Bistandsaktuelt last week, but has been translated and edited for republication here by HRH / Niels Jacob Harbitz. Photo of Onyango-Obbo: HRH / Niels Jacob Harbitz.

After altering the Constitution to make it possible, legally, to stand for a third term, Uganda?s President Yoweri Museveni began the election campaign by way of ordering the arrest of his main opponent, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate Kizza Besigye. Even if Besigye has since been released on bail, a Museveni victory will not be recognised as a clean and fair win.

-Several armed groups may take advantage of the forthcoming chaos
-Museveni probably would have won the forthcoming elections even without trying to hinder the opposition. What he fears, though, is to win with a small margin, since this will indicate to the people that all is not well, that the opposition actually enjoys a lot of support. Onyango-Obbo adds to this prediciton by way of pointing to the fact that there are already different armed groups across the country who might gain increased support, should Museveni?s reign lose legitimacy.

-A free press AND a legal opposition? No way. You can?t have it both ways
According to the experienced journalist and editor, Museveni has already shown that one of his responses to last summer?s referendum, in which multy-partyism was introduced, is to restrict even further the media?s freedom of expression and opinion. The judiciary is another institution that is now experiencing restricted independence. -During the years of so-called ´zero-party democracy,´ when Museveni?s Natonal Resistace Movement was the only political unit allowed to stand for election, the President permitted a certain degree of criticism in the media and also reasonable independence for the judiciary. What he will not permit, though, is the combination of a free press and a legal political opposition. Onynango-Obbo backs up his analysis by pointing to the fact that ever more court cases are dealt with in military courts.

Museveni?s three phases
Museveni has gone through several phases. After his take-over of power in 1986 followed what Onyango-Obbo calls the idealisic phase, during which inspiration was taken from socialist regimes like Cuba. This phase did not last long, though. Instead, during the decade lasting from 1988 to 1998, Museveni went through a rather more pragmatic phase, with economic reform, social development and poverty reduction as his main aims. From 1998, Museveni has been faced with internal opposition. As a consequence, he is now in a phase in whih he comes across as a typical ?strong man?. Uganda has made tremendous progress under Museveni. But after what has happened over the last years, he has no chance of ever getting back his role as a unifying leader, says Onyango-Obbo.

-Major sources of income are now disappearing, one by one
Museveni´s twenty years in office have been marked by significant economic growth. Now, however, the sgns are less positive. -Poverty reduction has stalled, Onyango-Obbo states. -Likewise, the willingness of international companies to invest in Uganda has gone down. A big American tobacco company recently cancelled its investment scheme in Uganda and established itself in Malawi instead. The flow of money coming into the country from Ugandans living abroad is also drying out. Finally, ever more international donors now choose to cut their support to Uganda. And even if this is a case of too little, too late, the former editor, now based in Nairobi, concludes, -the accumulated effect of all these changes are bound to be felt.