Polisario loosing patience

The conflict between Western Sahara´s independence movement Polisario and Morocco has reached its most critical point since the ceasefire in 1991, writes Tom Varghese (right), former leader of the Rafto Foundation´s student group. Rising tensions, a deteriorating humanitarian situation and a diplomatic deadlock are nurturing a steadily growing fraction within Polisario, pressuring the current leadership to return to arms (14-JAN-08).

By Tom C. Varghese, MA in Law, University of Bergen, Norway. Article published in Global Affairs, issue 7 February-March 2008: http://www.globalaffairs.es/Noticia-262.html
Parts of the article are re-published on this site by Gunta Venge / Rafto Human Rights House.
Photos: Rafto Foundation

The rhetoric of war
In the weeks prior to the 12th Polisario congress in December 2007, several prominent representatives of the movement were quoted saying that the congress would determine whether they would return to war against Morocco. This is certainly not the first time such statements have been made, however, this time the threats of war more alarming.

First and foremost, the lack of progress in Polisario´s negotiations with Morocco and within the UN has become the root of much frustration. When the settlement plan was proposed in 1991, the expectation was that the referendum would be carried out quickly, allowing for refugees to return from Algeria. These expectations, however, have not been met. Sixteen years later, most Sahrawies feel deceived. More disheartening, Morocco has reneged on its commitment. Since King Mohammed 6th came to power in 1999, a referendum on the question of independence is not considered a feasible alternative by Morocco.

Photo: Polisario congress




The kingdom is only willing to offer limited autonomy within Moroccan sovereignty. On the contrary, Polisario considers this to be a clear violation of the settlement plan and the basis of the ceasefire. They continue to demand a referendum on the future of Western Sahara.

Morocco and Polisario have been in a series of direct negotiations throughout 2007, alongside their neighbours Mauritania and Algeria. However, these negotiations proved fruitless and failed to bring the parties closer to an agreement. Many young Sahrawies are loosing faith, and expressed their discontent at the congress. They pointed out that during the war Polisario captured international attention, but today they feel politically marginalized.

Desperation amongst the Sahrawies
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in the refugee camps in Algeria is deteriorating. More than 165,000 Sahrawies have been forced to live in a part of the Sahara desert not previously inhabited. In summer, temperatures may reach 50 °C, and in winter below freezing. These extreme conditions have made the refugees entirely dependent upon humanitarian aid. Unfortunately, international aid has decreased notably the past couple years, leading to severe problems such as malnutrition.
 
According to NGOs operating in the area, dissatisfaction has been growing in the camps. A large fraction of the refugees are below the age of thirty and have spent the majority of their lives in the camps. After so many years, they especially, are growing increasingly frustrated over the hopeless future awaiting them. Individuals from within this group have joined with the army to take a leading role in pushing for a change in strategy towards Morocco.

The situation in the Moroccan administered part of Western Sahara is also grim. Amnesty International describes the human rights situation as very concerning, reporting incidents of: forced disappearances, the use of torture during interrogations, detention of political activists, deportations, censorship, and a lack of fair trials. Recent years have also seen a growing number of mass demonstrations in Western Sahara. As the Moroccan authorities have tightened their hold on the Sahrawi population, tensions between the two groups are rising.

Hope of a lasting solution to the conflict has slowly been fading, while the status quo has been growing increasingly acceptable to the international community. To quote a young Sahrawi woman at the congress, “our patience has been turned against us, and we are now left with only one option: war.”

A last chance for diplomacy
Polisario´s general secretary, Mohamed Abdelaziz, stated at the congress that he does not want a military solution. However, he warned that if Polisario were to be forced to resume the armed struggle, it would bring with it a fierce war of incalculable consequences for the stability of the entire region. As international delegates and the media left the congress after two days, intense discussions among the Polisario representatives prolonged the congress an additional 48 hours. According to Polisario spokesperson Mhamed Khadad, the result was a decision to meet again in six months, when a final decision on taking arms will be determined. Postponing the decision increases the pressure on both Polisario and Morocco prior to the final direct negotiations set for January 7, 2008.

Jacob Mundy, scholar on Western Sahara at the University of Exeter, doubts that a new war is on the rise, and that the threats are merely the venting of frustrations. If armed struggle were to break out, Polisario undoubtedly would be the weaker part militarily. A new strategy from Polisario would also be highly unlikely without the support of Algeria.

Regional power struggle
Morocco and Algeria have for decades attempted to expand their regional influence; these interests have clashed over the case of Western Sahara. Algeria has given full support to Polisario from the independence movement´s beginning. The country has willingly accepted the refugees and promoted the Sahrawies´ cause in the African Union and in international forums. However, Algeria has itself been locked in internal turmoil for several years, peaking with the terrorist attacks in Algiers on the eleventh of December this year. Even though representatives from Algeria´s largest political parties expressed their unanimous and unwavering support of Polisario, a war in its own backyard would be ill received at this point.

Back in the refugee camps, people await news from the congress. A group of young Sahrawies gather for the night to enjoy some tea, the only item they possess in large stocks. Upon request, one of them tells how as a child he watched his family pack their belongings in preparation for the move back to their home in Western Sahara after the ceasefire. Today, he has children of his own and promises that they will not have to spend their lives at the mercy of the Saharan desert.

Photo: desert in Western Sahara