The Zanu-PF old guard has awoken from its slumber ahead of the party´s crucial congress in Harare this week and achieved what many world leaders, including President Thabo Mbeki, have been unable to do: summons President Robert Mugabe and get him to act on their advice. (29-NOV-04) 

This article was written by Godwin Gandu and Netsai Mlilo. It was published in the South African daily Mail and Guardian last Friday and has been re-edited for publication here.  
 
Surrounded by trusted former liberation war fighters General Solomon Mujuru, former PF Zapu stalwarts and party vice-presidents Joseph Msika and John Nkomo; Mugabe relented and endorsed their candidate for the one vacant vice-presidential post. This has seen Joyce Mujuru, of the Women´s League, take pole position as Mugabe´s likely successor. The old guard is determined to wrest authority from ´the Mafikizolos´, the term used to describe the Young Turks led by Information Minister Jonathan Moyo and Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa. The older generation fears that they are destroying Zanu-PF´s legacy as a successful post-colonial government and leading the party into a cul de sac.

A fight for the party´s heart
Mugabe, who has been in power since independence in 1980, indicated earlier this year that he will depart the political stage in 2008, sparking intense jostling within Zanu-PF for leadership of the party that will create a launching pad for ascendancy to the position of president. The succession battle is turning out to be a fight for the heart and soul of Zanu-PF and has consolidated into two camps: Speaker of Parliament and Zanu-PF secretary for administration Emmerson Mnangagwa, for long believed to be Mugabe´s anointed successor, and Women´s League candidate Joyce Mujuru, the wife of one of Mugabe´s closest confidants.

robert_mugabe.jpgLong legacy of power
It was General Mujuru who vouched for the president among soldiers in the camps who knew little about him when he was released from a Rhodesian jail in 1975. The general also introduced Mugabe to African statesman Julius Nyerere, who had close ties with Joshua Nkomo and his PF Zapu. The Mujuru camp has the support of the security and intelligence structures. The´ve also roped in Mashonaland central powerbrokers, Intelligence Minister Nicholas Goche and Minister without Portfolio Elliot Manyika, as well as party heavyweights information chief Nathan Shamuyarira and Enos Chikowore. President Mugabe´s Zezuru rank and file clique and the Women´s and Youth Leagues are also in their fold.

Ethnic reconciliation required
The Mujuru camp despises the Young Turks who have thrown their weight behind Mnangagwa on the promise of landing the party chair and secretary for administration posts respectively. The old guard wants to cement the Zanu/Zapu merger and has nominated John Nkomo to retain the party chair. This strikes a conciliatory tone with the Ndebele clan who suffered 30 000 deaths during the Matabeleland strife in the 1980s´ atrocities repeatedly linked to Mnangagwa. Until last week Mnangagwa was a sure bet, having garnered the support of six of the 10 regions.

Using gender to neutralise ethnicity
Political analyst John Makumbe said Mugabe was angered by allegations that some European Union countries including Britain, who imposed sanctions on Mugabe and 94 of his lieutenants recently had contact with Mnangagwa as his heir apparent. An agitated Mugabe at the weekend warned: “There are politicians who used money to sway party members to vote for them last weekend when provincial structures nominated the presidium.” Mugabe said the money, estimated at R11-million, came from imperialists, “white capitalists”. This severely dented Mnangagwa´s ambitions. The succession battle has also provided Mugabe with a way out of this dilemma. “He approached it from a gender perspective to neutralise ethnic tensions in the party,” said academic Brian Raftopolous. “As always, Mugabe is playing to the regional gallery. This has been his strategy for years.” Analysts have for long said that Zimbabwe´s road out of its current political crisis lies in contesting power within Zanu-PF.

The weight of experience
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) spokesperson Paul Themba Nyathi is of the view that “The old guard, for all its intolerance, has a history of co-existing with opposition parties. Unlike the Young Turks who want to redesign the political landscape in accordance with their own vision and image, the old Zanu/Zapu guard talked and came to a negotiated agreement after a protracted, bitter war. They also negotiated at Lancaster House, an experience the Young Turks don´t have.” The MDC´s veiled endorsement of the old guard is likely to please Mbeki, who has not made much headway with his quiet diplomacy approach. Makumbe believes “Mbeki´s approach will find favour with the old guard with whom he shares a struggle history. The Mafikizolos must have made him very nervous with their radical and disruptive nature.” Zanu-PF insiders say a Cabinet reshuffle is on the cards after the elections in March in which the intellectual wing aligned to Mnangagwa, Moyo, Chinamasa, Foreign Minister Stan Mudenge and Agriculture Minister Joseph Made could get the chop.

Foreign funding to NGOs soon to be outlawed
But Makumbe has warned that Mnangagwa must not be viewed as down but not out. “He is going to fight. This might be the beginning of internal power struggles and eliminations characterised by stage-managed accidents and poisonings. These guys are ruthless and it´s open season now.” The in-fighting will culminate at the congress in December where Mugabe will be elected unopposed as president. It´s been a frenetic week for Zanu-PF. On Mugabe´s orders, Parliament remained in session until 3.15am on Wednesday for the second reading of a Bill to outlaw all foreign-funded human rights organisations and give the government the power to shut down any other NGO.